Skip Links

Network World

  • Social Web 
  • Email 
  • Close

Predicting your technical future

You see forward by looking backwards
Small Business Technology Alert By James E. Gaskin , Network World , 06/21/2007
James Gaskin
Sign up for this newsletter now!

James Gaskin helps small offices get the most out of technology

  • Share/Email
  • Comment
  • Print

After reading about the PopSci Predictions Exchange (PPX) in Popular Science Magazine, I wondered how I could help you predict your technology needs for the next 6 to 18 months. Since we don't have a predictions market driven by readers willing to place money (even fake money) on what you'll need, I'll see what I can find in the tea leaves.

You start seeing the future by looking at the past. For instance, if a coworker was a jerk last month and a jerk yesterday, chances are good that person will be a jerk next week. While more difficult than predicting jerkiness, seeing your technical future starts by taking stock of where you are and where you've been.

Here's an easy one: you will need more disk storage. People create more digital files today that include audio and video, and both can turn a small e-mail exchange into a few gigabytes. Even if you control the urge of employees to "jazz up" their e-mails and other documents, the federal government requires you to retain more information, including e-mail, than ever before.

You'll need more storage, so start planning ahead on how you will distribute and manage that storage. If you take the 18 month view, your storage will more than double, according to most schools of thought. It may be less expensive and less hassle to buy a better and larger system than you think you might need. Get one with some expansion room, backed by a reseller that will be around when you need to upgrade.

Here's an easy prediction: Microsoft Server 2008 will slip and lose features. That's exactly what happened with Windows Vista and just about every other Microsoft product. I refuse to believe no one at Microsoft realized November and December were hot shopping months when they released Vista at the end of January this year (to the public and smaller businesses). Server 2008 already started shedding features (in the Virtual Computing area) and Microsoft isn't even really late yet.

Here's another easy one: Vista will get installed in your business no matter if you want it or not. Before long you won't be able to find new computers with Windows XP, so Microsoft fans will have only one operating system choice: Vista. Basing your future on Microsoft's past performance, hold out until at least the first Service Pack. Time frames vary, but I'd put my money on the first quarter of 2008 for the first Service Pack. I don't think we'll see it in the fourth quarter, but some believe that will be the case. It would make sense for Microsoft to provide an improved "Vista experience" to make up for last year's delay to all the hardware manufacturers, but I still say 2008. I hope I'm wrong on this one, because sooner is better.

James Gaskin writes books (16 so far), articles and jokes about technology and real life from his home office in the Dallas area.

  • Share/Email
  • Comment
  • Print
Comment
Login
Forgot your account info?
Add comment
Anonymous comments subject to approval. Register here for member benefits.
Have a NetworkWorld account? Log in here. Register now for a free account.

Videos

rssRss Feed